Premier League odds: Norwich destined for last-place finish

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.Unlike Drake, we've started at the top and worked our way to the bottom, exploring a number of Premier League futures markets over the past week -…

12.06.2020 18:53

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Unlike Drake, we've started at the top and worked our way to the bottom, exploring a number of Premier League futures markets over the past week - including top four, top 10, top scorer, and bottom three.

It's only fitting that we end our descent at rock bottom, analyzing which club will finish last in the Premier League table - a market Norwich City have a stranglehold on.

POS. CLUB PTS GD MR
15. Brighton 29 -8 9
16. West Ham 27 -15 9
17. Watford 27 -17 9
18. Bournemouth 27 -18 9
19. Aston Villa 25 -22 10
20. Norwich City 21 -27 9

POS. - position; PTS - points; GD - goal difference; MR - matches remaining

And here are the odds for the dubious honor.

CLUB ODDS
Norwich City -250
Aston Villa +350
Bournemouth +900
West Ham +1400
Watford +1800
Brighton +3300

As much as there is an outside chance one of Bournemouth, West Ham, Watford, or Brighton collapses down the stretch, this market is essentially a two-horse race. We dove into these four clubs much deeper in the relegation market article, but the gist of it is simple.

Bournemouth have underachieved but Eddie Howe is a terrific manager and there's too much talent for the club not to finish strong. West Ham have impressive depth, which will aid them a great deal during this busy period, and their remaining fixture list is quite friendly. Watford have experienced a resurgence under Nigel Pearson, and while the Hornets are relegation candidates, they're too strong to drop such a long way. Brighton have a difficult schedule, and while I have tipped them to be relegated, there's too much cushion built up for them to fall as far as 20th.

That leaves Norwich and Villa in a heated competition to avoid last place, with the Canaries a clear favorite to suffer the unfortunate fate. Not only are they four points back of Villa, but they also have one fewer match remaining. The Canaries are being offered at -250, so there's a lot of juice to pay here, but frankly, that's still too short of a price given the predicament they find themselves in.

Daniel Farke's side plays an exciting brand of football but lacks the necessary options in attack. Teemu Pukki is a dependable striker with 11 league goals to his name, but Norwich have come to rely too heavily on him, as just one other player has scored more than a single goal. That's a dangerous recipe, especially ahead of such a busy period where fatigue will undoubtedly play a part and squad rotation will be key. They will require better from Ondrej Duda, who was brought in during the winter window.

Villa doesn't lack for attacking depth, especially after signing Mbwana Samatta and Borja Baston in January. Both are capable scorers that were brought in after record-signing Wesley was lost for the season, but the unexpected delay to the campaign means the club could have all three available to see out the season.

The team can also count on consistent secondary scoring from the likes of John McGinn, Douglas Luiz, Jack Grealish, Anwar El Ghazi, Trezeguet, and Conor Hourihane, each of whom have at least three goals this season.

Dean Smith's side will play six of its 10 remaining matches on home soil, and while Villa will face six clubs currently in the top half of the table, they're much better suited than Norwich to navigate their way through the final six weeks. They're also at a significant advantage with a four-point cushion and an extra game remaining. Even at a steep price, it's worth laying the juice to back Norwich to finish last in the Premier League.

Best bets: Norwich City -250

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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